Have you heard about the possibility of an earthquake in our area this weekend -- the Field Day weekend?
Dear Fellow Hams,
Have you heard about the possibility of an earthquake in our area this weekend -- the Field Day weekend?
I have that shaky feeling . . . . This coming weekend will see an increased earthquake risk. From June 21st through 23rd, possibly into the 24th, there will be a lunar perigee as well as the summer solstice and a full moon. I have recently gotten into predicting earthquake risks, and have found that the probability of a seismic event grows exponentially during periods where the Earth's crust is under increased stress. These periods include lunar and solar eclipses, perihelion and perigee events, and full and new moons. This upcoming weekend is particularly at risk from a seismic situation because we have a full moon about 1 hour apart from the lunar perigee. The separation is normally about 8 days, per a telecon I had this past weekend with Jim Berkland who is a former Santa Clara geologist and publishes "SYZYGY." It is from him that I have caught the earthquake bug and it is from him that I learned about the land and ocean tidal forces that can increase the seismic risk, especially in seismically unstable areas such as along the Pacific Ring of Fire. He is known for predicting the 1989 World Series earthquake using his geologic and observational skills.
Here is how this affects you. I am thinking that with the increased earthquake risk this upcoming weekend, Field Day will be particularly important. After the Northridge earthquake, the power was out for about a day or so. So if I can convince you of the increased seismic risk, so that we are all personally prepared with extra water and non-perishable food, fresh and charged batteries, working radios and antennas, we will be in a much better situation should this come to pass. I am also thinking that Amateur Radio operators need to be alerted to this risk due to the emergency communications that may need to be provided to the public if something does happen. I am contacting as many Amateur Radio operators as I know as well as past and present SBARC members to warn them. It would be great if you would too.
73 de Ingrid Steele, KB6MQN, Santa Barbara, CA
P.S. I have predicted two earthquakes so far within about a half hour of when they each occurred. I used a tidal chart for the Santa Barbara area, saw tides that were higher or lower than normal and guessed that there would be aftershocks to the 05/29/13 earthquake about the same time as those tides. I guessed right!
Of course, you could sit by and do nothing about my findings and predictions and, true, perhaps nothing will happen. On the other hand, what do you have to lose should this all come to pass? Perhaps plenty! The Boy Scouts have it right -- Be Prepared.
It's difficult to fault your logic. One wonders what these folks might have to say: http://www.quakefinder.com/.
Inspired by a 1985 talk on earthquake lights by USGS scientist John Derr, QuakeFinder founder Tom Bleier embarked on a search for electromagnetic signals associated with earthquakes. Starting with a tree as an antenna, and progressing to a 20-foot copper coil on the wall of his house, he looked for anything in the data that might provide an explanation for the lights or as reported in scientific papers, the radio interference before earthquakes in Chile and Japan. But like others before him, he found nothing. Then in 1989 the Loma Prieta M7.0 quake struck the San Francisco Bay area. Analysis of magnetometer data collected by Dr. Tony Fraser-Smith and Stanford clearly showed ultra-low frequency magnetic signals appearing two weeks prior to the quake. This proof of concept spurred Belier to continue his quest. Designing a low-cost instrument that could be deployed near faults to try and capture more examples like Fraser-Smiths, he worked with science programs at high schools near faults around California to help students build and install sensors. ...
On Tue, 18 Jun 2013 21:19:14 -0700, "Darryl Widman" auditron@juno.com wrote:
Dear Fellow Hams,
Have you heard about the possibility of an earthquake in our area this weekend -- the Field Day weekend?
I have that shaky feeling . . . . This coming weekend will see an increased earthquake risk. From June 21st through 23rd, possibly into the 24th, there will be a lunar perigee as well as the summer solstice and a full moon. I have recently gotten into predicting earthquake risks, and have found that the probability of a seismic event grows exponentially during periods where the Earth's crust is under increased stress. These periods include lunar and solar eclipses, perihelion and perigee events, and full and new moons. This upcoming weekend is particularly at risk from a seismic situation because we have a full moon about 1 hour apart from the lunar perigee. The separation is normally about 8 days, per a telecon I had this past weekend with Jim Berkland who is a former Santa Clara geologist and publishes "SYZYGY." It is from him that I have caught the earthquake bug and it is from him that I learned about the land and ocean tidal forces that can increase the seismic risk, especially in seismically unstable areas such as along the Pacific Ring of Fire. He is known for predicting the 1989 World Series earthquake using his geologic and observational skills.
Here is how this affects you. I am thinking that with the increased earthquake risk this upcoming weekend, Field Day will be particularly important. After the Northridge earthquake, the power was out for about a day or so. So if I can convince you of the increased seismic risk, so that we are all personally prepared with extra water and non-perishable food, fresh and charged batteries, working radios and antennas, we will be in a much better situation should this come to pass. I am also thinking that Amateur Radio operators need to be alerted to this risk due to the emergency communications that may need to be provided to the public if something does happen. I am contacting as many Amateur Radio operators as I know as well as past and present SBARC members to warn them. It would be great if you would too.
73 de Ingrid Steele, KB6MQN, Santa Barbara, CA
P.S. I have predicted two earthquakes so far within about a half hour of when they each occurred. I used a tidal chart for the Santa Barbara area, saw tides that were higher or lower than normal and guessed that there would be aftershocks to the 05/29/13 earthquake about the same time as those tides. I guessed right!
Of course, you could sit by and do nothing about my findings and predictions and, true, perhaps nothing will happen. On the other hand, what do you have to lose should this all come to pass? Perhaps plenty! The Boy Scouts have it right -- Be Prepared.
-
Bob Bascom -
Darryl Widman